Dollar's share in foreign exchange reserves
In this article, You can understand the long-term dollar's confidence decline and the reduction of dollars share in world foreign exchange reserves on the basis of IMF and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's announcement.(Reference is in the end of this article.)
Please check the following chart.
The first following chart draw the annual dollar's share in world foreign exchange reserves from 1995.
The second following chart draw it quarterly from 1999.
The share of dollar in world foreign exchange reserves has reduced in the long term.
The share appeared to be bottoming out in Q2 2011. However, after all, it is the merely temporal dead cat bounce .
Decline of the US dollar index
Then, Let's try to compare the change of the dollar index and the dollar's share in world foreign exchange reserves. Both values are bottoming out in 2011.
If you look at only the chart from 2000, you might think it looks like the bottom and the upward trend is ongoing.
However, You should not forget to capture the change of long-term span.
Let's see the following chart drawn from 1973 (the start year of dollar index).
40 year's chart has formed a completely downward trend line. Falling trend is ongoing. If you look at in 40 years span, the dollar index has not recovered.
The following chart is a graph chart in comparison with changes in the gold price.
Axis of the dollar index is in the upside-down in order to compare easily.
Technically speaking, the dollars Index will return to the opposite trend from here because it is supported by the support line.
What happened after the peak of dollar index in the past?. Gold price has increased significantly.
Government debt continue to increase
I think the bounce of Dollars Index will complete soon and gold price will rise in the future.
The confidence to dollar is shaken. In this background, there is a twin deficit of the United States. By a large trade deficit and a government debt, the value of the dollar has been steadily diluted.
The following graph draws the transition of the dollar index and the U.S. government debt to GDP.
The axis of Government debt to GDP is reversing as for easy comparison.
Government debt continues to grow over the past 40 years.
Depending on the increase of government debt, the dollar index also decreased.
Especially, government debt has increased significantly in the collapse of Lehman Brothers shock, 2008.
(Government debt is yellow line and right axis , the dollar index is blue line and left axis)
Then, I compare the transition of government debt and the gold price. Gold price increased significantly along with the government debt growth. This trend will not change in the future.
At the end
Up to this point, you confirmed important resources. There are US dollars share in world foreign exchange reserves, dollar index, US government debt and gold prices.
Over the long term, every time the US hegemony and the value of US dollar were reduced, the gold price has been inflated.
And now, I guess we are just facing to the US bubble collapse again.
This time, We are standing just before the dawn.
Gold price will explode soon after collapse of US economy.
References
Shares of U.S. dollars in total Reserves excluding Gold (Annual)
(Percent)1995 | 59.0 |
1996 | 62.0 |
1997 | 65.1 |
1998 | 69.3 |
1999 | 71.0 |
2000 | 71.1 |
2001 | 71.5 |
2002 | 66.5 |
2003 | 65.4 |
2004 | 65.5 |
2005 | 66.5 |
2006 | 65.1 |
2007 | 63.9 |
2008 | 63.8 |
2009 | 62.0 |
2010 | 61.8 |
2011 | 62.3 |
2012 | 61.3 |
2013 | 61.0 |
2014 | 63.1 |
Shares of U.S. dollars in total Reserves excluding Gold (Quarterly)
(Percent)1999Q1 | 71.2 |
1999Q2 | 72.1 |
1999Q3 | 70.7 |
1999Q4 | 71.0 |
2000Q1 | 71.5 |
2000Q2 | 72.0 |
2000Q3 | 72.3 |
2000Q4 | 71.1 |
2001Q1 | 72.3 |
2001Q2 | 72.7 |
2001Q3 | 71.4 |
2001Q4 | 71.5 |
2002Q1 | 71.6 |
2002Q2 | 68.5 |
2002Q3 | 67.5 |
2002Q4 | 66.5 |
2003Q1 | 66.4 |
2003Q2 | 66.2 |
2003Q3 | 66.7 |
2003Q4 | 65.4 |
2004Q1 | 67.1 |
2004Q2 | 67.4 |
2004Q3 | 66.9 |
2004Q4 | 65.5 |
2005Q1 | 65.1 |
2005Q2 | 65.8 |
2005Q3 | 66.1 |
2005Q4 | 66.5 |
2006Q1 | 66.2 |
2006Q2 | 65.7 |
2006Q3 | 66.1 |
2006Q4 | 65.1 |
2007Q1 | 65.1 |
2007Q2 | 64.9 |
2007Q3 | 63.9 |
2007Q4 | 63.9 |
2008Q1 | 62.9 |
2008Q2 | 62.6 |
2008Q3 | 64.2 |
2008Q4 | 63.8 |
2009Q1 | 65.2 |
2009Q2 | 62.8 |
2009Q3 | 61.5 |
2009Q4 | 62.0 |
2010Q1 | 61.7 |
2010Q2 | 62.5 |
2010Q3 | 61.6 |
2010Q4 | 61.8 |
2011Q1 | 61.0 |
2011Q2 | 60.5 |
2011Q3 | 61.6 |
2011Q4 | 62.3 |
2012Q1 | 61.5 |
2012Q2 | 61.5 |
2012Q3 | 61.2 |
2012Q4 | 61.3 |
2013Q1 | 61.8 |
2013Q2 | 61.8 |
2013Q3 | 61.4 |
2013Q4 | 61.0 |
2014Q1 | 60.8 |
2014Q2 | 60.8 |
2014Q3 | 62.5 |
2014Q4 | 63.1 |
2015Q1 | 64.1 |
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt, Gold Fixing Price
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index | Total U.S. Public Debt (% of GDP) | Gold Price (U.S. $ per Troy Ounce) |
|
1973-01-01 | 101 | 33 | 74 |
1973-04-01 | 97 | 32 | 104 |
1973-07-01 | 98 | 32 | 110 |
1973-10-01 | 102 | 32 | 100 |
1974-01-01 | 100 | 32 | 149 |
1974-04-01 | 101 | 31 | 163 |
1974-07-01 | 103 | 31 | 149 |
1974-10-01 | 101 | 31 | 174 |
1975-01-01 | 99 | 31 | 178 |
1975-04-01 | 101 | 32 | 167 |
1975-07-01 | 106 | 32 | 157 |
1975-10-01 | 106 | 33 | 142 |
1976-01-01 | 106 | 33 | 132 |
1976-04-01 | 107 | 33 | 127 |
1976-07-01 | 106 | 34 | 114 |
1976-10-01 | 107 | 34 | 127 |
1977-01-01 | 107 | 34 | 139 |
1977-04-01 | 106 | 33 | 145 |
1977-07-01 | 106 | 33 | 146 |
1977-10-01 | 101 | 33 | 161 |
1978-01-01 | 100 | 33 | 178 |
1978-04-01 | 97 | 32 | 179 |
1978-07-01 | 94 | 32 | 202 |
1978-10-01 | 93 | 32 | 214 |
1979-01-01 | 95 | 31 | 238 |
1979-04-01 | 95 | 31 | 259 |
1979-07-01 | 94 | 31 | 316 |
1979-10-01 | 96 | 31 | 413 |
1980-01-01 | 101 | 31 | 632 |
1980-04-01 | 93 | 31 | 545 |
1980-07-01 | 93 | 32 | 649 |
1980-10-01 | 96 | 31 | 629 |
1981-01-01 | 100 | 31 | 519 |
1981-04-01 | 108 | 31 | 479 |
1981-07-01 | 109 | 31 | 421 |
1981-10-01 | 105 | 31 | 421 |
1982-01-01 | 114 | 32 | 362 |
1982-04-01 | 119 | 32 | 333 |
1982-07-01 | 121 | 34 | 380 |
1982-10-01 | 116 | 35 | 427 |
1983-01-01 | 119 | 36 | 463 |
1983-04-01 | 120 | 37 | 427 |
1983-07-01 | 122 | 37 | 417 |
1983-10-01 | 123 | 37 | 388 |
1984-01-01 | 122 | 37 | 384 |
1984-04-01 | 128 | 38 | 379 |
1984-07-01 | 135 | 38 | 346 |
1984-10-01 | 138 | 40 | 335 |
1985-01-01 | 138 | 40 | 302 |
1985-04-01 | 136 | 41 | 319 |
1985-07-01 | 126 | 41 | 323 |
1985-10-01 | 120 | 44 | 325 |
1986-01-01 | 114 | 44 | 344 |
1986-04-01 | 109 | 45 | 342 |
1986-07-01 | 105 | 46 | 381 |
1986-10-01 | 104 | 47 | 405 |
1987-01-01 | 97 | 47 | 406 |
1987-04-01 | 98 | 48 | 450 |
1987-07-01 | 98 | 48 | 457 |
1987-10-01 | 87 | 48 | 474 |
1988-01-01 | 88 | 49 | 454 |
1988-04-01 | 93 | 49 | 452 |
1988-07-01 | 94 | 49 | 427 |
1988-10-01 | 89 | 50 | 415 |
1989-01-01 | 93 | 50 | 394 |
1989-04-01 | 98 | 50 | 374 |
1989-07-01 | 95 | 50 | 367 |
1989-10-01 | 92 | 51 | 389 |
1990-01-01 | 94 | 52 | 406 |
1990-04-01 | 92 | 53 | 365 |
1990-07-01 | 87 | 54 | 382 |
1990-10-01 | 85 | 56 | 381 |
1991-01-01 | 91 | 57 | 371 |
1991-04-01 | 93 | 58 | 360 |
1991-07-01 | 88 | 59 | 358 |
1991-10-01 | 84 | 61 | 360 |
1992-01-01 | 89 | 61 | 351 |
1992-04-01 | 85 | 61 | 339 |
1992-07-01 | 84 | 62 | 347 |
1992-10-01 | 91 | 62 | 338 |
1993-01-01 | 89 | 63 | 329 |
1993-04-01 | 89 | 64 | 361 |
1993-07-01 | 90 | 64 | 376 |
1993-10-01 | 92 | 64 | 374 |
1994-01-01 | 90 | 64 | 384 |
1994-04-01 | 87 | 64 | 382 |
1994-07-01 | 86 | 64 | 386 |
1994-10-01 | 87 | 64 | 385 |
1995-01-01 | 81 | 64 | 379 |
1995-04-01 | 81 | 65 | 388 |
1995-07-01 | 84 | 65 | 384 |
1995-10-01 | 85 | 64 | 385 |
1996-01-01 | 87 | 65 | 400 |
1996-04-01 | 88 | 64 | 390 |
1996-07-01 | 88 | 64 | 385 |
1996-10-01 | 88 | 64 | 376 |
1997-01-01 | 93 | 64 | 351 |
1997-04-01 | 93 | 63 | 343 |
1997-07-01 | 95 | 62 | 323 |
1997-10-01 | 98 | 63 | 307 |
1998-01-01 | 99 | 62 | 294 |
1998-04-01 | 100 | 62 | 300 |
1998-07-01 | 98 | 60 | 289 |
1998-10-01 | 95 | 60 | 294 |
1999-01-01 | 98 | 60 | 287 |
1999-04-01 | 100 | 59 | 273 |
1999-07-01 | 95 | 58 | 259 |
1999-10-01 | 96 | 58 | 296 |
2000-01-01 | 98 | 58 | 291 |
2000-04-01 | 100 | 55 | 280 |
2000-07-01 | 104 | 55 | 277 |
2000-10-01 | 103 | 54 | 269 |
2001-01-01 | 110 | 55 | 264 |
2001-04-01 | 110 | 54 | 268 |
2001-07-01 | 107 | 55 | 274 |
2001-10-01 | 111 | 56 | 279 |
2002-01-01 | 112 | 55 | 290 |
2002-04-01 | 102 | 56 | 313 |
2002-07-01 | 104 | 56 | 314 |
2002-10-01 | 100 | 58 | 323 |
2003-01-01 | 97 | 58 | 353 |
2003-04-01 | 92 | 59 | 347 |
2003-07-01 | 90 | 58 | 363 |
2003-10-01 | 85 | 59 | 392 |
2004-01-01 | 85 | 59 | 408 |
2004-04-01 | 87 | 60 | 394 |
2004-07-01 | 85 | 60 | 401 |
2004-10-01 | 79 | 60 | 434 |
2005-01-01 | 82 | 61 | 427 |
2005-04-01 | 85 | 60 | 428 |
2005-07-01 | 84 | 60 | 440 |
2005-10-01 | 86 | 61 | 485 |
2006-01-01 | 85 | 61 | 554 |
2006-04-01 | 81 | 61 | 629 |
2006-07-01 | 82 | 61 | 622 |
2006-10-01 | 82 | 62 | 614 |
2007-01-01 | 81 | 62 | 650 |
2007-04-01 | 79 | 61 | 668 |
2007-07-01 | 75 | 62 | 679 |
2007-10-01 | 73 | 63 | 788 |
2008-01-01 | 70 | 64 | 926 |
2008-04-01 | 71 | 64 | 897 |
2008-07-01 | 76 | 68 | 871 |
2008-10-01 | 80 | 74 | 798 |
2009-01-01 | 83 | 77 | 908 |
2009-04-01 | 78 | 81 | 923 |
2009-07-01 | 74 | 83 | 960 |
2009-10-01 | 74 | 85 | 1101 |
2010-01-01 | 75 | 87 | 1111 |
2010-04-01 | 79 | 89 | 1196 |
2010-07-01 | 74 | 90 | 1227 |
2010-10-01 | 73 | 92 | 1370 |
2011-01-01 | 70 | 94 | 1387 |
2011-04-01 | 69 | 93 | 1507 |
2011-07-01 | 73 | 95 | 1705 |
2011-10-01 | 73 | 96 | 1687 |
2012-01-01 | 73 | 98 | 1691 |
2012-04-01 | 74 | 98 | 1609 |
2012-07-01 | 73 | 99 | 1651 |
2012-10-01 | 74 | 101 | 1721 |
2013-01-01 | 76 | 102 | 1633 |
2013-04-01 | 78 | 101 | 1416 |
2013-07-01 | 75 | 100 | 1325 |
2013-10-01 | 76 | 101 | 1273 |
2014-01-01 | 77 | 104 | 1292 |
2014-04-01 | 76 | 102 | 1288 |
2014-07-01 | 81 | 102 | 1284 |
2014-10-01 | 85 | 103 | 1201 |
2015-01-01 | 92 | 103 | 1220 |
2015-04-01 | 90 | 1192 |
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